A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Intuit (INTU Quick QuoteINTU - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 17.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Intuit due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Intuit Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat on Online Growth

Intuit delivered fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings of $4.03 per share, which jumped 46.5% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.59. Revenues rose 13.7% to $4.35 billion, topping the $4.27 billion estimate.

QuickBooks Online Accounting benefited from higher effective prices, customer growth and mix shift. Total online payment volume, including bill pay, increased 32%, highlighting continued adoption of Intuit’s money offerings.

INTU's Online Ecosystem Carries Business Growth

Global Business Solutions revenues reached $3.42 billion, up 14% year over year. Online Ecosystem revenues increased 17% to $2.60 billion. QuickBooks Online Accounting revenues advanced 20% to $1.32 billion, while Online Services revenues rose 15% to $1.28 billion.

Money and payroll drove Online Services growth. Within money, payments, capital and bill pay contributed to the increase. QuickBooks Capital loan volume rose 54% to $1.9 billion, while Online Ecosystem revenues from QuickBooks Online Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite climbed 38%.

Intuit's Customer Push Broadens the Growth Funnel

Total online paying customers increased 3% at the end of fiscal 2026, about two percentage points below the prior year’s growth rate. U.S. QuickBooks Online customers, excluding Self-Employed, rose 6%, sharpening management’s focus on accelerating new-to-the-franchise additions.

QuickBooks Free and QuickBooks Lite are central to that effort. Intuit said more than 20,000 customers were actively using QuickBooks Free or had converted to paid offerings as of the prior month. Intuit Enterprise Suite annualized revenues also surpassed $145 million in the fourth quarter, four times the year-ago level.

INTU's Consumer Mix Shows Assisted Strength

Consumer segment revenues were $930 million, up 14% year over year. TurboTax revenues increased 3% to $153 million, Credit Karma revenues climbed 16% to $743 million, and ProTax revenues rose 6% to $34 million.

Credit Karma growth was driven by personal loans, auto insurance and credit cards. For fiscal 2026, TurboTax Live revenues grew 37%, and customers increased 38%. Management is reshaping the DIY tax model after losing quality customers to lower-cost providers, with a more competitive price-value equation aimed at rebuilding the customer funnel.

Intuit's Profitability Absorbs Restructuring Costs

GAAP operating income increased to $475 million from $339 million a year ago. Non-GAAP operating income jumped 42.5% to $1.45 billion, while the non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 33.3% from 26.5%.

Total costs and expenses rose 11.1% to $3.88 billion. The quarter included a $293 million restructuring charge. Research and development expense increased to $857 million from $801 million, while selling and marketing expense edged up to $1.26 billion from $1.25 billion.

INTU's Capital Returns Stay Elevated

Intuit ended fiscal 2026 with $7.2 billion in cash and investments and $7.7 billion of debt. The company repurchased $2.1 billion of stock in the fourth quarter, up 179% year over year. Full-year repurchases totaled $5.5 billion, helping reduce weighted-average shares outstanding by 2%.

The board approved a quarterly dividend of $1.38 per share, up 15% year over year, and Intuit retained $7.9 billion of repurchase authorization. Full-year operating cash flow increased to $8.84 billion from $6.21 billion. The company also issued $1.75 billion of senior notes in June to strengthen liquidity ahead of fiscal 2027 debt maturities.

Intuit’s Fiscal 2027 Guidance

For fiscal 2027, Intuit expects revenues of $23.28 billion to $23.51 billion, implying growth of 9% to 10%. Global Business Solutions revenues are projected to rise 13% to 14%, while Consumer revenues are expected to grow 4% to 6%. TurboTax growth is forecast at 2% to 3%, Credit Karma at 11% to 13% and Mailchimp between down 1% and flat.

Under the revised non-GAAP definition that includes share-based compensation, fiscal 2027 earnings are projected at $22.88 to $23.12 per share, representing growth of 23% to 24%. For the first quarter, revenues are expected at $4.29 billion to $4.31 billion, up about 11%, with non-GAAP earnings of $2.44 to $2.48 per share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Intuit has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Intuit has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.